Something strange appears to be happening on the way to British Prime Minister Theresa May’s anticipated victory after her clever strategy of calling a snap election.
The ploy could backfire on her—just the way her predecessor, David Cameron, got caught when he thought he could shut up the ultra-nationalists by calling a referendum on British membership in the European Union. The result was Brexit, and Cameron’s own hasty exit.
Until a few weeks ago, the general assumption in Britain was that the Labour Party was doomed to a sweeping defeat in the June 8 general election. In April, the Tories had an overwhelming lead in the polls.
May, who had succeeded the hapless Cameron, was an opponent of Brexit who now vowed to make Brexit work. She was seeking a strong mandate, so that she could negotiate the best possible terms.
May also moved to the center on domestic issues, promising more generous spending on public services, so as to preempt Labor’s domestic appeal. As politics, all this sounded positively brilliant.
Labour, meanwhile, was stuck with a leftwing leader in Jeremy Corbyn, who was far behind May in the polls. Labour looked to lose dozens of seats and be consigned to political oblivion.
Well, that was then.
In recent weeks, Corbyn gained dramatically on May. Even the horrible bombing in Manchester, the kind of gruesome event that normally causes voters to rally behind the government, did not slow Labour’s momentum.
According to the Guardian, more than a third of voters (37 percent) say their opinion of the prime minister is more negative than at the start of the campaign, against 25 percent who say it is more positive.
The opposite is true for Corbyn, with 39 percent saying they have a more positive view of Corbyn compared with 14 percent who now have a more negative view.
Corbyn also leads by 13 points among voters under 50, and is tied with May among women.
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If the election were held today, the governing Tory party would lose seats. Labour is in striking distance of winning a majority, and the momentum appears to be with Labour. So, what on earth happened?